Climate changes
When did you first realise that climate changes?
So far as we know, the first person to realise that climate changes was Shen Kuo in 1088. Since then, we have learned a great deal about how the climate changes naturally, and why.
How we got here
Then came agricultural revolutions, starting with the Neolithic Revolution around 11,700 years ago after the last Ice Age and continuing today with the use of fossil fuels to power machinery. make fertiliser, and transport and refrigerate food. They have had an increasing impact on our planet.
Then in 1712, Thomas Newcomen invented the first steam engine that was widely used, starting the industrial revolution and the widespread burning of coal.
But we did not recognise what impact this would have on the planet right away. Not only did it increase the amount of CO2 emitted per person, but it enabled our population to grow enormously.
The concept of greenhouse gases was first proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1822 (translation). In 1856, Eunice Newton Foote linked CO2 and global warming. In 1861, John Tyndall showed that water vapour and other gases contributed too. In 1896, Svante Arrhenius wrote about the effect of CO2 on ground temperature, and in 1896 modeled the effect of industrial-age coal burning (he wasn't far out). This was mentioned in a newspaper as early as 1912.
Warnings ignored
Fast forward to Carl Sagan, who testified in 1985 on how the greenhouse effect would change global climate, and possible solutions (transcript). He said, "the problem is that there are effects, and the greenhouse effect is one of them which have long time constants. If you don’t worry about it now, it’s too late later on."
Then to 1988, when Dr. James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, testified before Congress that:
"Number one, the earth is warmer in 1988 than at any time in the history of instrumental measurements.
Number two, the global warming is now large enough that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship to the greenhouse effect.
And number three, our computer climate simulations indicate that the greenhouse effect is already large enough to begin to affect the probability of extreme events such as summer heat waves".
Since then, there have been many warnings, increasingly urgent, which have been largely ignored by politicians.
Worse, the fossil fuel companies, who knew the danger as early as 1977 (Exxon 1977 and Shell 1988), have spent a great deal of money denying the science in public and sowing uncertainty so that they could continue to make big profits.
In 1998 Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley & Malcolm K. Hughes published a paper which included the now-famous hockey-stick graph, which showed just how much global warming has accelerated in recent decades.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created in 1988 and has released a series of reports since, the latest being AR6 which was released in in March 2023. According to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, “Humanity is on thin ice — and that ice is melting fast. Our world needs climate action on all fronts — everything, everywhere, all at once".
There have been a number of summits (the latest, COP28, begins on 30 November 2023). There have also been treaties - the last one was the Paris agreement in 2015. Yet the action taken has been woefully inadequate and governments often backpedal on the promises they have made. The planet keeps warming apace.
In the USA, George Bush took America out of the Kyoto Protocol and Donald Trump gave notice of leaving the Paris agreement (rescinded by his successor). Republicans plan to dismantle climate policy if they win the next election. Florida is teaching kids climate denial.
In the UK, Rishi Sunak has backtracked on net zero policies. COP28 is being run by an oil company. Those in power are STILL not taking the climate crisis seriously.
According to a recent study, the Earth is already beyond six of nine planetary boundaries.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
Meanwhile, 35 years after testifying to congress, James Hansen, who should have been enjoying a well-deserved retirement, is still studying the climate and warning us. His latest paper, "Global warming in the pipeline" he says, "under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes". He says the following actions are required:
a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy,
East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs,
intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate.
In a separate email he critiques the workings of the IPCC, "questioning whether the IPCC procedure and product yield the advice that the public, especially young people, need to understand and protect their home planet." We certainly need the very best messaging to reach the people and politicians.
What else do we need to do?
Do not vote for anyone who denies climate science, takes fossil fuel money or who seeks to delay action. Pressure any incumbents who do.
Pressure politicians to meet net zero goals. The details may change, but this must be on the side of reducing emissions earlier rather than later, as I explained in a recent article.
As far as possible, get off fossil fuels and reduce your use of products made using fossil fuels or that are delivered by plane
Reduce your meat consumption, particularly beef, if you still eat meat.
The richest contribute most to global warming, so raise taxes on them. The resultant greater equality would be good for society as a whole.
Keep informed, so you don't fall victim to any of the vast amount of climate disinformation that is out there.
This list is not exhaustive. Please leave further suggestions in the comments.