COP30

Once again, world leaders (not including Trump) or their representatives are meeting at the UN's annual climate conference, this year called COP30.

The future of the Earth depends largely on them.

A little history

In 1992, 154 states signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro. They agreed to combat “dangerous human interference with the climate system”. The main aim was the “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic [i.e., human-caused] interference with the climate system”. It also promoted research. At the time the atmospheric CO2 concentration was 356.54.

In 2016, 195 countries signed the Paris Agreement, aiming to keep the rise in global surface temperature to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels (preferably 1.5 °C (2.7 °F)). Between them they did not make enough pledges to reach that goal. The biggest emitter not to sign was Iran. The USA signed, withdrew in 2020, rejoined in 2021 and Trump announced its withdrawal again in 2025. It is the second largesitter. IN 2016 the atmospheric CO2 concentration was 404.41.

The Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997. There are 192 signatories (Canada withdrew in 2013, USA did not sign). Developed countries were required to reduce emissions.

The first Conference of Parties (COP) was held in 1995 and they have met annually since then, so it is COP30 that is currently taking place in Brazil

At COP26 in Glasgow, pledges were made which would only reduce the temperature rise to about 2.7C. And the temperature rise has speeded up, so COP30 needs to make steeper cuts.

The atmospheric CO2 concentration is now around 425ppm.

Tainted talks

Last year’s COP29 took place in Azerbaijan, it’s president was Mukhtar Babayev, former official of the state-owned oil company SOCAR. It’s chief executive was caught in a sting apparently agreeing to help fossil fuel deals at COP29.

The previous year, COP28 was held in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, which planned to do oil deals there. It was headed by an oil chief and oil company employees were given roles. Delegates included billionaires from polluting industries.

This year at COP30, there are over 1,600 fossil fuel lobbyists in attendance and over 300 big agriculture lobbyists.

The last three COPs were held in countries that do not allow protests.

So, what to expect from COP30?

With so many people in attendance who are making fortunes from carbon-emitting industries, it is highly unlikely that they will agree to end fossil fuels and give the Earth a chance to keep within comfortable bounds for humans or much wildlife. However, they will probably come up with something that is better than nothing, as in previous years.

The poor nations which have contributed little or nothing to climate change, but in some cases are suffering the most, will again press for help to cope with climate change - in the case of nations comprising low-lying islands, their very existence is at stake. They will likely get something, but not nearly as much as they need.

COPs are opportunities for scientists to present their science to the polluters and to the world. They and others stress the urgency which polluters and politicians do not seem to feel. Some of what they say makes it into the press, perhaps prompting more people to put pressure on their politicians to act.

Unfortunately there has been a lot of disinformation ahead of the conference. Hopefully some of it will be dispelled there.

This year protests have been allowed, unlike for the past three years.

One new factor this year is that back in July, the International Court of Justice ruled that all states must, under international law, tackle the “urgent and existential threat” of the human-made climate crisis. It remains to be seen whether states are willing and able to rein in their polluters.

Also, China has recently pledged to reduce its CO2 emissions for the first time, by 7–10 per cent by 2035.

What has happened so far at COP30?

More than 80 of the nearly 200 nations present are backing a proposal for national plans on how to quit oil, gas and coal.

Agreements tend to be reached at the end of the conference, if at all, so there is not much to report yet.

The summit is due to end on Friday, though they have been known to overrun. Let’s hope they finally wake up to the urgency.