COP30 goes into overtime - the final result

Did it achieve its goal of saving life on Earth as we know it?

As I wrote the other day, it is not surprising that COP30 overran. I didn’t expect it to catch fire, however.

I also explained why the results were likely to be disappointing - and in that they have not disappointed me. Well, they have, but not surprised me.

The world needs three things from a climate deal:

• Plans to phase out the use of fossil fuels

• A faster reduction in carbon emissions

• Greater help for less developed countries from developed countries to help them adapt to rising temperatures, rising sea level and increasingly extreme weather.

So, how’s it going?

At one point the Cop chair gaveled texts through without letting countries speak, and the plenary session was brought to a halt when they complained.

Despite COP30 being held in the Amazon, there was little progress on deforestation. Around 90 nations backed a roadmap. Brazil launched the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, an investment fund to pay nations to keep trees standing.

All parties agreed to a Just Transition Mechanism, so that greening the world economy would be done fairly, but no funding was attached.

They also agreed to start discussing trade. Perhaps worried about the effect of Trump’s tariffs on green energy goods?

Countries agreed to scale up climate finance and accelerate implementation of the Paris Agreement - there will be a report at the next COP.

Phasing out fossil fuels

Saudi Arabia led the charge to block a deal which would have reduced the use of fossil fuels. This is hardly surprising since Saudi Arabia has become very wealthy and powerful thanks to sitting on fossil fuel reserves. They must have known decades ago. As I describe in my Climate Wars fiction series (which includes a lot of facts!), the fossil fuel industry knew they were harming the planet a long, long time ago. They could have used their vast income from fossil fuels to become world leaders in renewables. Instead, others took up the slack. As renewables get cheaper and more popular, demand for fossil fuels will fall, leading to a reduction in price. And as oil fields get emptied, it gets harder and more expensive to extract oil from them. So, profits will fall. These are people who have failed to look far enough ahead.

Apparently there was a “lot of fighting“.

In an earlier draft, phasing out was omitted altogether. You can read all of the negotiating texts at COP30 for yourself.

In spite of fierce resistance from fossil fuel fools, COP30 came to a last minute agreement to voluntarily begin to discuss a road map to eventually phase out fossil fuels. Underwhelming is an understatement. This is a selfish betrayal of the planet. Around 90 nations are working on a plan, nevertheless.

Reducing carbon emissions

Seven out of the 194 countries - Britain, France, Canada, Germany, Norway, Japan and Kazakhstan vowed to reach “near zero” methane emissions.

$9bn was pledged to halt deforestation, which contributes about ten percent of global emissions.

Helping less developed countries

Less developed countries felt that developed countries were not listening.

A tripling of funding for adaptation was agreed, but the goal of roughly $120bn a year was postponed 5 years to 2035. Last year’s $300 billion promise was mostly earmarked for non-adaptation projects.

Some reactions

“A climate deal without explicit language calling for a fossil fuel phaseout is like a ceasefire without explicit language calling for a suspension of hostilities.” - Michael Mann.

“This deal isn’t perfect and is far from what science requires. But at a time when multilateralism is being tested, it is significant that countries continue to move forward together.” - Mary Robinson.

Saudi Arabia and the EU jointly won this year’s “colossal fossil” award. Colombia won the good award.

One bright spot is that countries and people will continue to act to reduce global warming despite COP30’s cop-outs and Trump’s betrayal. Not just because it is the right thing to do, but because renewables are getting cheaper.