How the American coup will harm the UK

Anyone who thinks it won't is kidding themselves. It won't be good for Europe, either. Or for America itself.

It's not just me saying it's a coup. There are Carole Cadwalladr, Thom Hartmann, Heather Cox Richardson and Timothy Snyder, The Nation, Slate, and the Atlantic, for example.

I've written before about Project 2025, which Trump denied but is now following with his Executive Orders.

What happens in America does not stay in America, whether it is the Koch brothers financing the spread of the Libertarian agenda, or American think tanks co-operating with British (and European) think tanks and politicians. Some of Trump's donors have been funding British think tanks. Cambridge Analytica had transatlantic ties. Peter Thiel's Palantir is involved in the NHS and the police.

It can also go the other way. Rupert Murdoch, who started out in Australia, spread his agenda here in the UK before moving to America and founding Fox so-called News. He lobbied in the UK against restrictions on foreign ownership. However, somehow I don't think that visits by British politicians like Liz Truss and Nigel Farage have made much of an impact in the States.

America and the UK have a lot of shared history and a shared language, so it is not surprising that there has been something of a 'special relationship', even if it was rather strained at times, as happens in families. But Trump seems determined to break off all America's old friendships and to cozy up with Russia and other dictatorships instead. It takes two to be friends, so the UK should handle the USA with great care until it comes back to its senses, to avoid any situations arising that could permanently widen the gap. Many Americans and Brits are friends or relatives or have done business together. Trump and Putin can't end that.

History has shown that we cannot rely on old relationships, and that we need to be quick to recognise the changes and act. And boy, are ww learning that now.

So, what changes are there likely to be?

Relations with Europe

The Labour Party have not shown much interest in reversing the disaster that was Brexit, with only tiny steps towards improving relations with Europe, but with America (or rather, the tiny fraction of it in power) turning to Russia, there is a much greater incentive to grow closer again, for mutual security.

After Trump and Vance's bullying of Zelensky, UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer was quick to embrace Zelensky and to arrange a meeting of European leaders (although he unfortunately did not invite the Baltic states), but he did speak to them online. King Charles also met with Zelensky. Even Britain's most right wing paper was appalled at Trump's treatment of Zelensky.

Starmer pledged £2.2 billion ($2.8 billion) from Russian assets and £1.6 billion ($2 billion) in export finance to help Ukraine buy missiles.

Russia

By not winning in Ukraine, and losing so many soldiers and so much material, Russia was in a very poor position. Sanctions were taking their toll and the economy was tanking, and only fossil fuel deals were enabling it to continue. Then, in the oval office with Zelensky, Trump threw Putin a lifeline. With his puppet in the White House becoming isolationist, Putin is in a much stronger position. He has a much better chance of achieving his Ukraine to take over several European countries and it is not yet clear just how far Europe and NATO, of which the UK is a member, can go to stop him. The UK has just announced more sanctions against Russia.

With Trump unwilling to provide any meaningful security guarantee for Ukraine in the event of peace, peace is less likely and the UK and its allies will need to step up.

Defence

Trump has shown no interest in helping to restore its borders to Ukraine, is very friendly towards Putin and is a serial liar and breaker of promises. Despite what Keir Starmer says (he trusts Trump), I think we would foolish to rely on America while Trump is in power. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently said, "you can’t make an assumption that America’s presence will last forever". VP JD Vance clearly holds Europe in contempt (the feeling is mutual, methinks). European leaders were already considering increasing defense spending even before the recent declaration that Ukraine started the war and bullying of Zelensky by Trump and Vance. Vance is no friend of Europe or the UK. Trump is already engaging in trade wars. Starmer has been told that the British Army is too small to deploy troops for Ukraine peacekeeping. There's a shortage of tanks, too. Could he join Russia in its war against Europe?

Even if Trump pulls back from the brink, his actions and rhetoric will have emboldened dictators around the world, and his ham-fisted foreign 'policies' could easily trigger World War Three, not necessarily in ways we can predict. Stochastic war, if you will.

Starmer has said that he is ready and willing to put British troops in Ukraine if there is a peace deal.

Macron has suggested a joint defence shield, including nuclear weapons.

This shift in power is happening just as ice at the poles is melting, making sea travel and land more accessible to Russia.

Russia is not just sitting back, full of glee at developments. It recently hit the Italian transport system and banks. Given that Putin seems to have conquered America without a shot, Europe would do well to beef up all its infrastructure against cyber attack and propaganda. Maybe physical attack too - several European power and communications lines/pipes have been cut, recently. The UK is not immune.

Ukraine's military experience and innovation in the past 3 years, especially in the area of drone warfare, may help NATO armies catch up.

UK defence systems are intertwined with American ones. That leaves the UK very vulnerable if the USA were to become an enemy - and Musk may already have access to American systems (and intelligence) that gives him access to the UK systems. But that could cut both ways, we know the capabilities of a lot of American planes, for example.

There are many American bases in the UK and Europe. If the USA were to withdraw or be tossed out, that would be bad for the local economy. I remember that on the day before 9/11 I chauffeured a military-plane-mad friend around Lakenheath and Mildenhall bases. We spent a lovely day standing next to the runways watching lots and lots of planes - apparently the jets were practicing takeoffs and landings that day. It's hard to imagine that all gone.

Politics

Musk has been interfering in UK politics, and Musk and Vance have boosted neo-Nazi AfD in Germany.

Trump's violent rhetoric and Musk's tweets have led to an increase in violence in the UK, and reduced trust in government. American think tanks are forming branches and alliances over here and lobbying hard. GB News is fulfilling the role of Fos News in the U.S. Think tanks are also peddling climate denial, which is a disaster for the whole planet.

There is a strong suspicion that Putin and his American puppets had a lot to do with the misinformation that caused too many British voters to vote for Brexit. I also suspect that right wing economic think tanks have got to Starmer and Reeves. Their economic policies are so un-Labour-like.

The situation provides Kier Starmer to revive his flagging popularity at home, and he is being praised for organising a European summit so quickly and welcoming Zelensky, but cutting off aid rather than taxing billionaires is not the way to do it, nor is saying he trusts Trump. Reducing aid is bad for security. Hopefully he will now drop his hesitancy to do anything to reverse Brexit. By successfully calling the summit, he has brought the UK closer to Europe.

Trade, economy

Trump's tariffs have been likened to a ‘second Brexit’ in economic impact. This will add to inflation, which is bad for leaders everywhere. According to FT''s Gideon Rachman, the US is playing into the hands of China.

More money has been promised to Ukraine to make up for Trump's default, plus European nations are planning on spending more for defence. This will mean cuts elsewhere unless Labour finally realise that they should tax the rich. Starmer is cutting foreign aid, reducing goodwill and leaving an opening for China, the same as America. The UK was already planning on increasing defence spending, but it has become more urgent now.

It will cost a lot to disentangle our trade and all our systems from America.

Environment

Trump's attack on climate denial and science is disastrous for the people and the planet. But it is an opportunity to recruit some of the brightest American brains, whom Trump clearly does not value.

Any escalation or even just a continuation of the war in Ukraine prolongs the risk of nuclear disaster at Chernobyl or Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plants, plus oil spills and other pollution. Here in the UK, the government is minded to boost nuclear and fossil fuel energy rather than renewables, which will also be bad for the environment.

Trump's gutting of agencies which study the climate or the weather are going to leave a hole in world science, which may be irreparable.

Democracy / power

America becoming a dictatorship is a major threat for democracy around the world, as Sir John Major writes, though perhaps it is a useful warning for other countries. Its isolationism leaves a power vacuum for Russia and China and others to fill.

Think it could not happen here? More than half of the British Gen Z think that “the UK would be a better place if a strong leader was in charge who does not have to bother with parliament and elections” and a third (33%) believe “the UK would be a be a better place if the army was in charge”. Brexit has already curtailed their freedom to travel.

Health

As we saw with Covid, disease is no respecter of national boundaries. All it takes is one flight, sometimes.

With COVID and other respiratory diseases doing the rounds, America's withdrawal from the WHO is a major blow. So is its appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaxxer, to be his next secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. His U-turn on mRNA vaccine is deeply disturbing, as is the Trump Administration's war on science. America has been a major player in the fight against disease, and though many other countries have produced vaccines, America also has a major role to play as customer for them, enabling the developers to make substantial profits so they are willing and able to develop more. Possibly RFK jr. is beginning to see the light - he's recently endorsed the use of vaccines for measles, which has returned to the USA and killed at least one child. Mexico has warned its citizens not to go to Texas, but it has already spread to 6 other states. Bris might be advised to avoid America, too.

Musk has fired CDC ‘disease detectors’.

Musk has laid waste to USAID, which may well result in millions more malaria infections and 200,000 cases of paralytic polio each year

As the measles outbreak shows, if we lower our guard against diseases, they will bounce back. And there are new ones waiting in the wings, one or more of them could mutate and reach epidemic proportions. For example, bird flu. No doubt the firings will undermine the fight against that in the USA. I hope the UK government has learned from the COVID outbreak and has a robust pandemic plan in place.

One of Trump's supporters, Peter Thiel, owns Palantir, which has major NHS contracts and access to our data. I see that as a risk, as did a doctor writing in the BMJ even before Trump 'won' the election.

Science & education

British universities have been suffering of late due to Brexit and lack of funding. However, international students are now thinking twice about studying in America and British Universities could take advantage of this. Musk has fired many highly qualified scientists. Hopefully we will be able to attract some of them here, too. But that will take better investment in our universities, which would rise in the international league tables.

On the other hand, the war on science could spread here to the UK.

Benefits and opportunities

As mentioned above, there are some possible benefits and opportunities - benefitting from the U.S. brain drain, moving closer to Europe, reversing Brexit.

Ironically, King Charles III is being useful.

The right wing are not our friends

Judge people by the company they keep. Liz Truss and Nigel Farage align themself with MAGA, frequently traveling to America for CPAC, etc. Kemi Badenoch is aligning herself with Trump. Musk supports the German neo-Nazi party AfD. Watch what is happening in the USA. That is the reality. If you don't like it, then however enticing the promises of the right are, resist them and move and support and vote left. Watch what is happening to the climate - wilder weather with bigger storms, drought and wildfires - and ignore climate-denying politicians. Watch the deadly measles epidemic in Texas, and Ebola, and perhaps next, TB, and resist vaccine-denying, health-denying politicians. Think women should not have to carry dead or fatally flawed or their rapist's foetuses to term, or have babies they simply cannot afford to care for (nobody should be unable to afford a child or two, but that is another argument)? Then do not vote for the right-wing parties.

Every day I have been writing this, there have been new developments. I just hope that from here on, they are predominately positive.