When will the General Election be?

A general election in the UK may be called sooner than you think...

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We want an early election but the Tories don't, right? Maybe not.

More and more people have been calling for the Tories to call a general election, sooner rather than later, including me. The clamour has grown as people got tired of never-ending austerity, and more of the downsides and lies of Brexit came to light, and we learned the extent to which the Tories believe that the rules that apply to us do not apply to them (e.g. Partygate).

They've raised bankers' bonuses and given huge contracts to unqualified rich cronies while refusing to give workers big enough raises to make up for the inflation over the 13 years they have been in power.

They've underfunded the NHS, which was number one in the world when they took power, while giving big contracts to private companies.

Particularly annoying to me is their failure to do anything about price gouging by oil companies, preferring to use tax money to enable people to pay well over the odds for their fuel so that said companies could make record profits.

In many ways it seems like they are clinging on to power for as long as they possibly can so as to squeeze as much money out of the people as possible, to spin their failures into successes in the hope of winning the election, or because they know they will not regain power for a long, long time and they like being in power.

However, there is at least one reason why they may decide not to leave the election to the last minute.

Why Tories may call an election early

There are, of course, many factors influencing when a prime ministor and his or her advisors decide to call a general election. Not all of them are within their control.

Incumbent governments tend to lose elections if the economy is in bad shape. And while it is in poor shape already (thanks particularly to Truss and Kwarteng), world events may lead it to take a turn for the worse.

Of course there is no way of predicting how the Ukraine war will go or whether or when another war will break out.

And we can't predict just how much extreme weather or a further rise in COVID might affect our imports, particularly of food. Or of home production. A lack of seasonal workers due to government policies has reduced local production too. In 2022, 42% of our food was imported.

But if, like the queen in Alice, Tories can believe as many as six impossible things before breakfast (or before the breakfast shows, at least), including that they could win an election, then they may call a snap election if they expect the economy to tank even further, so that Labour gets the blame.

If the election has to be no later than 28 January 2025, then parliament has to be dissolved on or by 17 December 2024.

Conservatives listen to the same kind of advisors from the same kind of think tanks funded by the same kind of billionaires as the Republicans. Sometimes it is the same people involved, with them coming over here or cabinet members travelling to the USA. So the Tories will well know what Americans expect to happen to the economy.

And one thing is for sure. OPEC and Russia will be manipulating the oil market in time to influence the American election in November 2024, just weeks before Britain could be going to the polls. They want Trump or an equally pro-Russia and pro-Saudi Republican to win, so they want the economy to tank under Biden, and they can do that by cutting production to raise the price of oil. Oil is sold on an international market, so what affects the US election will likely affect ours too. They have already begun cutting production. Oil prices are currently over $90 a barrel, and one shale CEO predicts it could reach $120 to $150 a barrel, as does JP Morgan. History shows that the price can vary enormously over a very short period.

The same oil producers also manipulate the oil price to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, thereby affecting inflation. US inflation is relatively low at the moment but British inflation is higher, and they could choose to influence the Bank of England.

The higher the price of oil, the higher the cost of heating and transport and (since we are way behind on renewables) of electricity. This would increase the UK's cost of living and decrease Tory chances of winning. But if they can predict that the economy will get worse when Labour take over (through no fault of Labour's) so that people will turn away from Labour and vote Tory at the following election, then they may bring forward the election to make the most of that effect.

I'm not saying that Tories will call an early election - I'm not an economist, I certainly can't read Tory minds and I don't have a crystal ball. Just don't rule one out.