War: What is it good for?

You don't need to be an expert on war to know that war is a bad thing for the vast majority of people. Warmongers are some of the worst people in the world.

Here are some of my thoughts on war - mostly in list form, as this article would be far too long, otherwise.

The harm that war does

• Soldiers are killed or traumatized.

• Women and children are killed or traumatized.

• More and more determined enemies are created, leading to more 9/11s, which lead to more conflict... Iran has already vowed revenge and attacked several countries. It may well have more in the works. (That article gives several experts’ assessments of the situation).

• Infrastructure is damaged. It will take fortunes and years to rebuild Gaza and Ukraine, for example, and there will be much squabbling along the way.

• Diseases can spread unchecked, leading to more deaths, and not just in the warring countries.

• Food production is disrupted, leading to food shortages around the world.

• Countries may become leaderless if the leader is killed, leading to gang or faction warfare long after the larger war is over.

• More refugees will be added to the existing tally of war and climate refugees.

• Beneficial developments, for example in medicine, may be lost.

• The military industrial complex will become even richer and more powerful.

• Worse or more effective ways of killing may be developed.

• The world may become more polarised.

• Economies can be devastated by war, by sanctions before and after the war, and by loss of markets and/or manufacturing infrastructure. If the strait of Hormuz is shut, world oil prices could skyrocket. The stock market could crash, impoverishing all but the richest investors - including pension funds. Dubai will not be as popular a destination for the rich now that it has been bombed.

• Soldiers who have become accustomed to indiscriminate killing may decide it is acceptable back home, too. Their relationships may suffer.

• Soldiers coming back with PTSD can be a danger to themselves and others.

• People who have undergone the stress of war may have physical health problems later too - my mother had terrible psoriasis and my father’s stress went to his digestive system, eventually killing him of cancer, I believe.

• Children born during times of stress are more likely to be prone to mental illness and behavioural problems. Families torn apart.

• Deaths may shift the population ratios in some Middle East countries by age, sex, ethnicity or religion, depending on who gets killed. Will Donald Trump risk many white males as boots on the ground?

• Government funding for things other than war may suffer.

• Refugees can increase tensions and (if unable to work) depress the economies of the countries that take them in. Perhaps Trump’s attack on immigration was motivated in part by his intention to wage war.

• During and after a war, education is badly hit. in some wars, teachers and children are targets.

• Some refugees never return, leaving a depleted workforce.

• Irreplaceable artifacts and memories defining a culture may be lost. Just look how tied to the land of Israel Israelis were before it was given to them. Land will remain even after war (but not if sea level caused by climate change drowns it), but other things that define a nation or race may be lost forever.

• Many children are orphaned.

• In some wars, women are raped as an act of war, and they and their children may be shunned as racially impure, afterwards.

• The environment can take a hit. For example, the destruction of the Kakhovka dam during the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a major environmental catastrophe. Depleted uranium has been used in war, as have a variety of nasty chemicals including Agent Orange (the original one).

• The new leadership of a country may be worse than the old.

• Where war leads to one country taking over another, we end up with fewer countries and less choice of forms of government in the world. As with economics, the bigger the more powerful - all the worse for everyone else. And when a very large country fights a war with another very large country, that’s an awful lot of people and land at risk, and maybe economic, food supply and nuclear fallout. Some scholars are saying that we are headed towards a world state. Certainly Putin, Xi and Trump want us to have a three-state world, next.

• The nastiest pieces of work, the most psychopathic, can get to win.

• This may be the war that introduces small nuclear weapons. The trend in war has always been towards weapons of ever more destruction, plus in modern times some ever more precisely targeted ones too.

• This may be the war where drones could attack anyone and anything, anywhere - technology has so advanced.

• The rules of war are always evolving, just like the weapons. Long gone are the days when the British lined up in their red coats expecting to face a similar line of American soldiers. Trump disregards any rules that restrict him, and others will follow suit, either out of necessity, or because they always wanted to but did not want to be the first.

This war is likely to be particularly problematic because neither side can expect Donald Trump’s unwavering support or antipathy. Leaders will have to continuously follow the money to guess what he will do next.

Some positive effects, by no means worth it

There can be ‘positive’ effects of war, but not one of them makes war worthwhile, IMO.

Trump may be hoping that war will bring the USA out of the recession his policies are sending it into. After all, they say that WW2 helped the USA get out of the Republican Great Depression.

• reduced overpopulation.

• some bad guys may be taken out.

• there may be some good technological spin-offs (e.g. drones for non-war purposes, prostheses, plastic surgery, medical treatments, Teflon).

• some economies may be stimulated.

• some soldiers and others are motivated to fight for peace.

• aid from the USA helped Europe to rebuild after WW2, and Germany, in particular, was able to do well because its brand-new manufacturing base was competing against the rest of Europe, which still had a lot of old kit.

• WW2 showed that women were capable of doing many men’s jobs. It should not have taken war to do this. And some men have taken it badly, their role as breadwinner having defined their manhood. But others have prospered by having a wife who is a full partner, not just a cheap housekeeper and nanny.

• War may lead to a stronger leadership, but not necessarily a better one.

Reducing the harm of war

There are some ways to reduce the effects of war apart from the obvious one - don’t go to war in the first place:

• have good defences, e.g. air defence or bunkers.

• take in refugees and put them to work using their skills - making sure they get at least the minimum wage and basic housing and support. No wasting their economic value by turning them into an expense by not letting them work and housing them in camps or hotels (but make sure there is plenty of work for citizens and legal residents, first). The American space race and others benefited from taking in German scientists, for example.

• Distribute population and infrastructure as far as possible. Centralisation may be more economical for oligarchs, but it makes great targets for missiles. Solar power and other renewables should be used as much as possible (and not just in huge solar farms). Ukraine is suffering badly this winter because of its inherited central heating systems and power stations, which Russia has bombed. Many countries are suffering economically because of their dependence on oil, even if they are a long way away from the war. This Middle East war may close the Straits of Hormuz through which a significant amount of oil is shipped. Ukraine is a major source of the world’s grain. Countries should be as self-sufficient in basic foodstuffs and other essentials as possible, and families should grow their own as far as possible. Total self-sufficiency is of course impossible, but every little bit helps. Farmers were able to feed themselves better than everyone else (except the very richest) during World War Two.

• After the war, having more women working can improve the economy and the wealth of families (though it may not be so good for the children).

To see examples of some of the numbers attached to previous wars, see Wikipedia’s Effects of war article.

So, all in all, Trump, Putin and Netanyahu (among others) are cracking further open a bellicose pandora’s box. And all we can hope for is, well, hope.

I expect I have missed some consequences. Please add any you think of in the comments.